Monday, April 21, 2008

Testing my baseball betting theory

Well I'm back! And it actually feels very good. If you read my post on baseball betting, you're probably wondering if I put my theory to test in Las Vegas this past weekend. Yes I did so let's review the results.

First, let's refresh your memory. My theory goes like this; the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs have the most fans per team, and hence the large fan bases skew the money line so that it's advantageous to bet against each of them. Got it?

On Wednesday I had a situation which was unexpected. The Yankees were playing the Red Sox. Typically I'd argue my theory should be called off for head-to-head match-ups, but being my opportunity was limited, I bet against the Yankees figuring between them and the Red Sox, there were more Yankee fans. The Yankees won so I lost $10. The Cubs were playing the Reds and following my theory I bet on the Reds. Cubs won so I lost another $10. Things were not going as I expected.

Thursday was a tough day. After playing craps until seven in the morning with two new friends, one an Australian and the other a Director of Business for Costco in Washington state, I was running late to a one o'clock tee time and was unable to put my bets in. As it turned out, I made a large mistake. Yankees lost to the Red Sox and Cubs lost to the Reds. I'm not sure what the lines were, but I'm guessing I lost out on $25 to $30 in winnings.

Being fully repaired on Friday, I vowed to not miss out on the day's gambling. The Yankees and Red Sox were done with their head-to-head match-up allowing me to bet against all three teams for the first time. Yankees lost to the Orioles which gave me $15 in winnings. Now I was only down $5 from the beating on Wednesday. Unfortunately both the Sox and Cubs won putting me further in the red at -$25.

We left early Saturday so I didn't have time to bet, which was good because it would have cost me another $5 to $10 bucks.

All in all I lost $25 while testing my theory. If I would have bet that Thursday I would have come close to breaking even. My conclusion on the theory is inconclusive. Meaning that next time I'm in Vegas I'll be testing it out again to see what kind of results we end up with.


David said...

My conclusion on the theory is inconclusive.

I'd agree. I think you have something, but singular bets are meaningless. It would make more sense to analyze the final spreads versus the coverage percentages.

Mac Noland said...

I agree. And I'm guessing this could be done by looking at without betting a dime. If I ever get some time, I'm going to try that for a while and see if there is a small advantage.